The Election Commission has announced the dates for Lok Sabha elections across the country, including Gujarat. According to this, voting will take place in Gujarat’s 26 Lok Sabha constituencies on May 7th and the counting will be on June 4th, spanning over a single day. Additionally, byelections will also be held for assembly constituencies in Porbandar, Manavadar, Visavadar, Khambhalia, and Vadodara. However, byelections for the Visavadar assembly constituency have not been announced due to ongoing court matters. In the 2022 elections, Bhupat Bhayani had won from this constituency. A petition had been filed in the Gujarat High Court regarding alleged discrepancies in Bhupat Bhayani’s nomination form, and the case is still ongoing.

Political Parties Gear Up for Elections in Gujarat

Political parties have started fielding their candidates. The battle is intense in Gujarat’s 26 constituencies; will Congress be able to make a comeback or will the results of the 2014 and 2019 elections repeat? Will BJP achieve a clean sweep victory? These questions hold significant importance.

Turning Points in 2014 Elections

The year 2014 marked a significant turning point in the political history of the country. Even in Gujarat, the atmosphere had changed since 2014. In 2009, out of Gujarat’s 26 constituencies, BJP had won 15 seats while Congress had won 11. However, the scenario changed drastically from 2014 onwards. In the 2014 elections, Congress suffered a clear defeat. None of Congress’s candidates could win. The same happened again in 2019, where Congress’s veteran leaders lost when they entered the fray. In 2009’s Lok Sabha elections, there was an average of 48% voter turnout across Gujarat’s 26 constituencies, with BJP receiving 47% of the votes and Congress 44%. BJP had a lead in 15 seats, whereas Congress led in 11. BJP secured 3.51% more votes than Congress. The turning point was evident in 2014, where there was an average of 64% voter turnout, with BJP receiving 59% of the votes and Congress 33%. BJP swept all 26 constituencies. In this election, BJP received 26.2% more votes than Congress. BJP’s vote share increased from 47% in 2009 to 59% in 2014. Conversely, Congress’s vote share decreased from 44% in 2009 to 33% in 2014. In the 2019 elections, there was an average of 65% voter turnout in Gujarat, with BJP receiving 62% of the votes and Congress 32%. BJP won all 26 constituencies again. In this election, BJP received 30.1% more votes than Congress.

Losses of Dignitaries in 2014

From the meetings of the veterans in 2014, former Chief Minister Shankarsinh Vaghela lost from Sabarkantha, Kunvarji Bavaliya from Rajkot, Vikram Madam from Jamnagar, Punja Vansh from Junagadh, Virji Thummar from Amreli, former Union Minister Bharatsinh Solanki from Anand, former Union Minister Dinsha Patel from Kheda, former Union Minister Naransinh Rathwa from Chhota Udaipur, former Union Minister Tushar Chaudhary from Bardoli.

Refusal to Contest by Dignitaries in 2024

In the 2024 elections, Congress announced the names of Gujarat candidates. Even before that, two former state chiefs of Congress, Jagdish Thakor and Bharatsinh Solanki, refused to contest. Jagdish Thakor, backing out from the electoral field on March 11, followed by Bharatsinh Solanki, who expressed his unwillingness to contest through social media on March 12.

Leaders and Members of Parliament Desert Congress

Leaders and members including Arjun Modhwadia, former state chief and former MP from Porbandar, Ambareesh Der, former MP from Rajula, former Union Minister Naransinh Rathwa, Chirag Patel, former MP from Khambhat, and C.J. Chavda, former MP from Vijapur, along with 10,500 workers, left Congress and joined BJP.

Current State of Gujarat Legislative Assembly

In 2022, elections were held for the Gujarat Legislative Assembly comprising 182 members. At that time, BJP won a record 156 seats out of 156 contested. Meanwhile, Congress won on 17, Aam Aadmi Party on 5, Opposition on 3, and Socialist Party on 1 seat. After the results of the Legislative Assembly elections, 25 MLAs have submitted their resignations. Following this, the current status of the Gujarat Legislative Assembly is 156 for BJP, 13 for Congress, 4 for Aam Aadmi Party, 2 for Opposition, and 1 for Socialist Party. These vacant five seats will be filled with the Lok Sabha elections. Politically, these seats are up for grabs by political parties.

Resignations from Various Constituencies

• Arvind Ladani, Congress MLA from Manavadar.
• Chirag Patel, Congress MLA from Khambhat.
• C.J. Chavda, Congress MLA from Vijapur.
• Arjun Modhwadia, Congress MLA from Porbandar.
• Bhupat Bhayani, AAP MLA from Visavadar.
• Dharmendrasinh Vaghela, AAP MLA from Vaghodia.

BJP May Offer Tickets to Defectors

Although uncertainty looms over who will be the candidates in these constituencies, most of the defections can influence the electoral prospects of BJP in the Legislative Assembly elections. There will be 28 constituencies in the Assembly expansion. In these meetings, voters will decide between two candidates for the Legislative Assembly after the Lok Sabha elections.

Announcement of Legislative Assembly Elections in Four States Along with Lok Sabha

Election Commission announced the dates for the Lok Sabha elections in 2024. Along with this, the dates for the legislative assembly elections of Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, Arunachal Pradesh, and Sikkim have also been announced.