Will Trudeau’s Party Return to Power? Mark Carney Leads Liberals in Election as Jagmeet Singh’s NDP Struggles

Liberal Party Leader Mark Carney Takes Lead with 21 Seats, Khalistani Supporter Jagmeet Singh Falls Behind, Wins Only 1 Seat

Voting for Canada’s general elections concluded on Monday evening, and early results suggest a near-certain victory for Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberal Party.

According to Canada’s national broadcaster CBC, the Liberal Party is likely to secure enough seats to form the government. However, whether it will achieve a full majority of 172 seats remains uncertain.

These elections come at a critical time when Canada is embroiled in a tariff dispute with neighboring America. The final results are expected to be announced between April 30 and May 1.

Originally, Canada was scheduled to hold elections in October 2025. However, Prime Minister Mark Carney called for early elections last month, stating the need for a stronger mandate to confront former U.S. President Donald Trump’s policies.

Justin Trudeau, who served as Canada’s Prime Minister from 2015 to early 2025, resigned earlier this year, paving the way for Mark Carney to assume leadership.

In Canada, a Prime Minister typically serves a five-year term, but if a Prime Minister loses the majority or opts to call early elections, Parliament can be dissolved. That is exactly what Carney did.

Liberals Expected to Win 189 Seats

According to Mainstreet Research, the Liberals are projected to win around 189 seats, giving them a 70% chance of forming the government. Meanwhile, the Conservative Party is expected to perform better than in the last election, although the Bloc Québécois (Quebec Party) and the New Democratic Party (NDP) may lose seats.

Main Contest Between Liberals and Conservatives

• Liberal Party: Founded in 1867, the Liberal Party is one of Canada’s oldest political parties, supporting progressive policies like liberalism, environmental protection, and social welfare. Despite criticisms over issues like inflation and unemployment, the party has maintained strong support. In the last general election, the Liberals won 153 seats, falling 17 short of a majority and forming a government with NDP’s support.
  
• Conservative Party: A major political force supporting right-wing ideology, the Conservative Party was formed in 2003 after the merger of the Progressive Conservative Party and the Canadian Alliance. The party focuses on economic liberalism, limited government, individual freedoms, and traditional values. Since September 2022, Pierre Poilievre has led the party. The Conservatives criticize the Liberal government’s economic management and carbon tax policies. In the last election, they secured 120 seats.

Tough Battle for Quebec Party and NDP

• Bloc Québécois (Quebec Party): Formed in 1991 by defectors from the Progressive Conservative and Liberal parties, the Bloc supports environmental issues, LGBTQ+ rights, and abortion rights. It won 33 seats in the 2021 elections but may lose ground this time.
  
• New Democratic Party (NDP): Established in 1961, the NDP focuses on social justice, labor rights, economic equality, environmental protection, and social welfare. Led by Sikh MP Jagmeet Singh since 2017, the NDP won 25 seats in the 2021 elections. With the Liberals lacking a majority, the NDP’s support was crucial last time. However, pre-election polls now suggest a decline in NDP seats.

Key Prime Ministerial Candidates

• Mark Carney (Liberal Party): Mark Carney was elected Liberal Party leader on February 9, winning 85.9% of the votes. An economist and former central banker, Carney served as Governor of the Bank of Canada in 2008 and later as Governor of the Bank of England, becoming the first non-British citizen to hold the post in the institution’s 300-year history. His leadership during the financial crises earned him significant recognition.
  
• Pierre Poilievre (Conservative Party): If the Conservatives win, Pierre Poilievre could become the next Prime Minister. A graduate in International Relations from the University of Calgary, Poilievre is fluent in French and English. He served as Minister of Employment and Social Development and Minister of State for Democratic Reform under former Prime Minister Stephen Harper. He has criticized Trudeau over issues like honoring a Nazi soldier in Parliament and tensions with India regarding Khalistani extremism.
  
• Jagmeet Singh (New Democratic Party): Jagmeet Singh, leader of the NDP since 2017, is the first person of a minority background to lead a major Canadian party. Born in Ontario in 1979 to immigrant parents from Punjab, Singh entered Parliament in 2011. He was denied an Indian visa in 2013 due to alleged involvement in anti-India activities and extremist links. Singh has been vocal about the 1984 anti-Sikh riots and participated in a 2015 pro-Khalistan rally in San Francisco.