Market Warning: IDP Investor Guidelines Issue Bearish Outlook Until 2025
IDP Education provides the largest services in international education. As a publicly traded company on the Australian Securities Exchange, it is bound to disclose any financial outcomes or material impacts that may affect the company or its markets, including physical changes that could affect stakeholders.
It is responsible for issuing regulatory and market updates as of June 6, clarifying that the company is forecasting lower revenue and job reductions for the current year, leading to a subdued outlook for the global international student market, driven by new policy settings in Australia, Canada, and the United Kingdom.
Included are:
- New student visa settings in Australia, and newly announced registration limits effective January 2025
- Registration caps for 2024 and 2025 in Canada
- A new policy in the UK that impedes students and their dependents from being included
- As a result of these policies and no further changes to main immigration settings, “IDP expects the market for international education to contract over the next 12 months due to supply-side constraints. If current trends persist, there will be an increase in the number of international students. The total number of new international students commencing studies, which is measured by the total number of offers reported by IDP, is expected to decline by [financial year 2025] by 20-25% compared to the projected volumes for FY2024.”
Taking heed of the caution, IDP projects that for financial year 2024, its student placement volumes will decrease by 15-20%. Guidance as of June 6 suggests that the company is now embarking on a cost reduction program that is “designed to rationalize costs. In subsequent investor briefings, the company’s spokesperson suggested that this includes a 6% reduction in IDP’s global staff complement, affecting 6,800 or more people across over 30 countries.
