Grand Coalition at Risk: I.N.D.I.A’s Disintegration with Nitish’s Success, Bihar on Edge for Surprises
Today holds immense importance in Bihar’s political arena as the prospects of a grand alliance government emerge. Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s announcements are eagerly awaited as he steers the course. Earlier, Nitish Kumar had arrived at the Raj Bhavan, but Deputy Chief Minister Tejashwi Yadav was notably absent, raising further speculation. However, tensions seemed to ease as Nitish Kumar and Tejashwi Yadav found common ground during a program on January 26th.
Important Meeting of Bihar BJP Held in Delhi Today
Vinod Tawde, the state in-charge of the Bihar BJP, stated that an important meeting regarding Bihar’s current political situation is being held in Delhi. The meeting will be attended by all officials, legislators, and MPs, and discussions will revolve around the upcoming Lok Sabha elections.
RJD Busy in Efforts to Salvage Grand Alliance Government
Lalu Prasad Yadav’s party is actively engaged in efforts to salvage the Grand Alliance government. The meetings are ongoing and efforts persistently continue. The RJD is striving to convince Ram Manjhi to support the JDU.
Yesterday, Sushil Kumar Modi’s statement, “No doors are permanently closed in politics. If a door is closed, it can also be reopened,” clearly indicates that for Nitish, the doors of the BJP have once again opened. Subsequently, the formation of an NDA government in Bihar seems almost certain.
The biggest question now is what transpired within a year that the BJP, known for closing doors, is now ready to welcome Nitish Kumar? In what circumstances will the BJP align with Nitish Kumar? Is the BJP once again preparing to rejuvenate its alliance with Nitish Kumar in Bihar?
BJP’s Intensive Deliberations in Bihar: Seeking Answers and Strategies
According to sources, the entire leadership of the BJP has been working relentlessly over the past 48 hours to address looming questions. Initially, members of Bihar BJP’s core committee were summoned to Delhi for discussions, followed by a half-day meeting organized at the residence of the state in-charge, Vinod Tawde.
Subsequently, Union Home Minister Amit Shah held a discussion lasting nearly 95 minutes at his residence. Separate meetings were also held with JP Nadda and Amit Shah. With insights from party sources and political pundits, efforts have been made to comprehend the ongoing internal dynamics within the BJP, aiming to decipher the ongoing movements and deliberations within the party.
Understanding Nitish Kumar’s Open Door Policy
BJP’s Alliance Dissolution Demands:
Nitish Kumar had been a significant voice for the BJP in the Lok Sabha elections, particularly advocating the dissolution of the I.N.D.I.A. coalition. According to political pundits, Nitish Kumar’s pivotal role in bringing together fragmented opposition parties onto one platform cannot be overlooked. He was the first to initiate talks with the Congress for coalition formation.
Subsequently, he toured states like Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, Delhi, Maharashtra, Punjab, Haryana, and Tamil Nadu. He also reached out to Mamata Banerjee and Akhilesh Yadav to join hands with the Congress. In July 2023, he united opposition leaders against the BJP in Patna.
Nitish Kumar actively worked on the formula of fielding one candidate against the BJP in around 400 Lok Sabha constituencies. His main focus was on Bihar’s 40 seats, Uttar Pradesh’s 80, Jharkhand’s 14, and West Bengal’s 42 Lok Sabha seats to challenge the BJP.
Nitish Kumar’s 16% Conundrum and BJP’s Understanding:
Nitish Kumar’s strength is an uncertainty of 16% of votes, which even the BJP acknowledges. Except for the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, Nitish Kumar’s vote share has never fallen below 22%. Even during the Modi wave of 2014, Nitish garnered 16% of the vote. His influence is not limited to Bihar alone; it could impact neighboring states like Jharkhand and Uttar Pradesh as well.
During the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, JDU fought alone and secured a vote share of 16.04%. The party then held two meetings, and amidst the Modi wave, the NDA won 31 seats out of 40 in the state, garnering a significant victory. In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, Nitish Kumar joined hands with the BJP, increasing NDA’s vote share to approximately 54.34%. Out of the state’s 40 seats, the NDA won 39, while the Congress managed to secure only one. BJP fears that any coincidence might demand Nitish Kumar’s support for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
Understanding BJP’s Plans for Nitish Kumar
It is now evident that the BJP’s state leadership is not pushing for Nitish Kumar to be given an honorable exit from Bihar. Sources suggest that the BJP is not demanding Nitish Kumar’s leadership in Bihar to form a government in any circumstance. They believe that the direct impact would fall on the efficient functionaries. Bhaskar, a senior leader in the BJP organization, conveyed that the party’s most significant challenge is how to remove Nitish from Bihar.
If we trust BJP insiders, they might offer Nitish Kumar the position of NDA convener. Along with this, after the Lok Sabha elections, he could be offered a position in the Rajya Sabha, along with a state ministerial berth, with two ministers from JDU also getting a chance. However, no BJP leader seems prepared to openly discuss this issue.
Nitish Kumar’s Potential Role in the Lok Sabha Elections
Nitish Kumar may continue as Chief Minister until the Lok Sabha elections, as he is not inclined to leave the CM post under any circumstances. In such a scenario, the BJP can preserve the CM position until the Lok Sabha elections. Additionally, the BJP may have two Deputy Chief Ministers.
According to BJP sources, Sushil Modi could return to the Bihar government once again. Besides, the BJP may appoint 7-8 ministers from its quota. Whether these new faces will be entirely fresh or repeats from the past remains uncertain, as party leaders are refraining from making any clear statements regarding this matter.
Amit Shah Takes Charge of Entire Campaign Management
Amit Shah himself is overseeing the entire campaign management, a strategy that is indicative of his pivotal role in Bihar’s political landscape. The entire campaign is being kept under wraps, with BJP leaders refraining from providing any public statements or soundbites. This approach stems from the absence of any strong demands or criticism against Nitish Kumar from BJP leaders, who are also avoiding any explicit guidance on coalition dynamics. As a result, the reins of the comprehensive political maneuvering in Bihar remain firmly in Amit Shah’s hands.
